The November by-elections are shaping up to be a defining moment in Kenyan politics. They are seen as an important test for President William Ruto as he evaluates his alliances ahead of the 2027 General Election. Results from areas like Malava, Mbeere North and Kasipul could determine how the President chooses his partners and plans his next political moves. Key leaders, including Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, stand to gain or lose influence depending on the outcome.
President Ruto has stayed away from active campaigning. Analysts say he wants to observe the real strength of his allies without his direct involvement. The results could also shape his decision on a running mate. Prof Kindiki faces pressure to deliver Mbeere North, a seat near his home in Tharaka-Nithi. Losing it would weaken his influence in Mt Kenya and expose cracks in the voting bloc that helped elect the President in 2022.
Rivalries in Key Regions
Tensions between Prof Kindiki and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua have grown. Mr Gachagua says Prof Kindiki’s biggest risk is not Mt Kenya politics but ODM leaders seeking to negotiate a deal that could force President Ruto to surrender either the presidency or deputy presidency. He claims some Mt Kenya allies have misled the President about the region’s support. The by-elections, he adds, have trapped leaders who were expecting rewards in future government reshuffles.
Last week, Prof Kindiki accused Mr Gachagua of declaring himself the region’s spokesman without support. He said he has the experience and history to lead Mt Kenya and promised to remain in Mbeere North until the vote is concluded, taking the UDA candidate for swearing-in if they win.
Musalia Mudavadi also faces a test in Malava. The seat was once held by his former ANC party, and the current race pits DAP-K’s Seth Panyako against UDA’s David Ndakwa. The outcome will show how much influence Mr Mudavadi still holds in the Western region, which is seeing major political changes. His failure to deliver Vihiga to President Ruto in 2022 remains a concern for some analysts.
Strategies and the Road to 2027
Observers say every major player has something at stake. Prof Macharia Munene argues that the President will have to make key decisions regardless of the results. He says Prof Kindiki’s base is weak, making him vulnerable, while Mr Mudavadi is fighting hard to maintain his position.
Commentator Javas Bigambo says the results will not directly determine the President’s running mate but will help him plan his 2027 campaign. A narrow win or loss in Mbeere North and Malava would show the President still has a presence in Mt Kenya and Western. A heavy loss would signal deeper problems and require a major rethink. For Prof Kindiki, the results will reveal how valuable he is for the next election.
ODM deputy leader Godfrey Osotsi dismissed suggestions that Governor Wanga could be considered for the deputy president slot. He said ODM remains part of a broad-based government until 2027, after which the party will decide its next steps. He added that discussions about coalitions or endorsements are personal opinions, not official positions.
In Homa Bay, Governor Wanga faces a direct challenge from her deputy, Oyugi Magwanga, who is supporting an independent candidate in Kasipul against the ODM nominee. He questioned the party’s nomination process, citing irregularities, and condemned violence in the area, including the destruction of property. He insisted that the by-election must be free and fair.
These by-elections are more than routine contests. They are shaping alliances, exposing rivalries, and revealing the political direction of both the government and opposition as the country moves toward 2027 general election.
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