For many Kenyan households, ugali is no longer a guaranteed meal. Rising maize prices have pushed the cost of flour beyond the reach of low income families. What was once affordable is now a daily struggle. Across the country, shelves still carry maize flour, but at prices many shoppers can no longer sustain. The problem begins at the source. Several millers have exhausted their maize stocks. At the same time, farmers in key growing regions are holding onto grain. Many expect prices to rise further. This combination has reduced supply and increased competition for the remaining maize. In the North Rift, maize prices continue to climb. A 90-kilogramme bag now sells for over Sh4,200 in many markets. Traders sometimes offer even more to secure supplies. Farmers say they fear selling too early. Erratic rainfall and uncertain harvests have made them cautious.
In retail shops, the impact is immediate. A two-kilogramme packet of maize flour now sells at about Sh160 in many towns. Just months earlier, the same packet cost around Sh120. Families now buy less flour or skip meals. Others turn to cheaper substitutes that do not fully replace ugali. Millers say they have little choice. Grain prices have increased, transport costs remain high, and operations are expensive. Many insist that price controls worsen the situation. They argue that supply and demand should guide prices in a liberalised market. Behind the numbers lies a human story. Parents worry about feeding their children. Small traders struggle to keep customers. Farmers weigh survival against pressure from authorities. Ugali may look simple, but its price reflects deeper economic stress.
Farmers Hold Grain as Uncertainty Grows
In maize-producing counties, farmers are choosing patience over quick sales. Many believe a shortage is unavoidable. Weather patterns remain unpredictable. Some areas recorded poor rainfall during planting. Others faced delayed seasons that reduced yields. Farmers say they learned from past losses. In earlier years, many sold maize cheaply, only to watch prices rise later. This time, they prefer to wait. The expectation of higher prices drives stockpiling, even as the government urges release. Authorities issued a 30-day ultimatum, warning farmers to release maize or risk duty-free imports. The aim is to stabilise flour prices and protect consumers. However, farmers argue that forced sales threaten their livelihoods.
Agricultural experts caution against heavy-handed action. They say cheap imports may offer short-term relief but damage local production. Imported maize often arrives at lower prices. This makes it harder for local farmers to recover costs. The shift in farming patterns adds another layer of concern. In traditional maize zones such as Uasin Gishu, Nandi, and Trans Nzoia, some farmers now grow sugarcane or coffee. These crops promise steadier income. However, reduced maize acreage weakens national food security. Farmers also face rising input costs. Fertiliser, seeds, and labour remain expensive. Even with subsidised inputs, margins stay tight. Many say selling maize too early leaves them unable to prepare for the next season. For rural families, maize is both food and income. Holding grain is not greed, they argue. It is survival in an uncertain climate and market.
Government Struggles to Balance Markets and Hunger
The government faces a delicate task. It must protect consumers while supporting farmers and millers. Officials insist that imports remain a last resort. The priority, they say, is to buy local maize and build reserves. Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe has urged farmers to comply with government directives. He warned that delays could lead to losses if imports begin. According to the ministry, the goal is stability, not punishment. The National Cereals and Produce Board plays a central role in this effort. The board raised its buying price to Sh4,000 per bag to attract farmers. It also secured funds to pay suppliers promptly. Despite this, purchases remain far below target. Competition remains stiff. Millers and traders often outbid the board. Some offer as much as Sh4,400 per bag. As a result, national reserves grow slowly. This weakens the country’s emergency preparedness. Kenya is required to maintain millions of bags of strategic grain or equivalent cash reserves.
These reserves protect the country during droughts and shocks. Without them, the risk of crisis increases. Food insecurity already affects millions. Drought has reduced harvests in several counties. According to the National Drought Management Authority, many arid and semi-arid areas remain under stress. If conditions worsen, the number of people needing aid could rise sharply.
The administration of President William Ruto has pledged to reduce food imports. The government aims to strengthen local production and cut spending on foreign grain. Officials note that Kenya spends hundreds of billions of shillings on food imports each year. Earlier projections estimated strong maize harvests due to good weather and subsidised fertiliser. However, climate uncertainty and market pressures now challenge those expectations. What looked like abundance has turned into anxiety. For now, households continue to feel the strain. Ugali remains on the table, but at a higher cost. Until supply stabilises, many Kenyans will keep counting every shilling at the shop
